Ether’s August rally could lead to September downtrend, history suggests

Ether’s price has climbed 25% since the beginning of August, but historical data suggests the cryptocurrency could lose steam in September.

Only time will tell if Ether (ETH) plays out differently this year, with billions flowing into spot Ether ETFs and treasury companies.

Crypto trader CryptoGoos said in an X post on Friday, “ETH seasonality in September during post-halving years is typically negative. Will this time be different?”

Ether is trading at $4,759 at the time of publication, up roughly $952 from its Aug. 1 opening price of $3,807, according to CoinMarketCap. The crypto asset crossed new highs above $4,867 on Friday following dovish comments from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium.

History suggests caution for Ether during September

Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut next month, which many in the crypto market view as a potential bullish catalyst.

However, history suggests caution for Ether as there have only been three instances since 2016 where Ether posted gains in August, and each was followed by a September decline, according to CoinGlass.

Since 2016, September has delivered an average loss of 6.42% for Ether. Source: CoinGlass

In 2017, Ether surged 92.86% in August before dropping 21.65% the next month.

The pattern repeated in 2020, with a 25.32% gain in August followed by a 17.08% pullback in September. In 2021, Ether climbed 35.62% in August before slipping 12.55% in September.

Ether gained in the final three months of 2016 and 2020

Interestingly, even though September saw losses in 2016 and 2020, Ether posted upside in each of the following three months in both years.

However, this September could play out differently from previous years, with spot Ether ETFs and Ether treasury companies present, which were not active during past August rallies.

On Aug. 11, the total Ether held by companies with crypto treasuries surpassed $13 billion in value, as the cryptocurrency’s price surged past $4,300.

Source: Satoshi Stacker

On Saturday, blockchain intelligence firm Arkham reported that BitMine chairman Tom Lee bought another $45 million worth of Ether for the firm bringing BitMine’s total stack up to $7 billion.

August has been a significant month for spot Ether ETFs

Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs have seen roughly $2.79 billion net inflows in August alone, while spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs posted approximately $1.2 billion in net outflows over the same period, according to Farside.

Related: ETH data and return of investor risk appetite pave path to $5K Ether price

NovaDius Wealth Management president Nate Geraci said in a post on Saturday that there has been a “notable shift” in the inflows between spot Ether ETFs and spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance, which measures its overall market share, has fallen 5.88% over the past 30 days to 58.19%, which many market participants typically attribute to capital rotating into the broader crypto market outside of BTC.

Magazine: ETH ‘god candle,’ $6K next? Coinbase tightens security: Hodler’s Digest, Aug. 17 – 23

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