Analyst: Can This Rejection Pull Avalanche Back to $16? AVAX Navigates August’s Consolidation, On-Chain Activity Signals Upside Move

Avalanche (AVAX)’s current price action signals that the downward momentum is far from over. Bulls have run out of strength, leaving the market at risk of a greater fall under bearish pressure. The altcoin is displaying short-term rejection after losing strength around $26.50, as spotted by market analyst Ali Martinez. With the fall, the analyst suggests that Avalanche may experience a potential correction to $16 before the digital asset initiates a second breakout attempt. Today, AVAX’s value stands at $23.56, down 8.6% and 1.6% over the past week and month, respectively.

Avalanche $AVAX faced another rejection at $26.50. Channel pattern suggests a move toward $16 support. pic.twitter.com/VaQ8iyHvH9

— Ali (@ali_charts) August 30, 2025

Avalanche Price Struggles at Resistance

Ali spotted the formation of a parallel pattern in AVAX’s weekly chart, which worries him. This technical setup, together with a double-top reversal pattern (situated at the upper boundary), signals that there is a continued selling pressure that could lead AVAX to further decline towards the $16 mark, as highlighted in Ali’s data.

According to the data, Avalanche is consolidating in a descending channel, a pattern highlighting persistent selling pressure. After it failed to clear the upper resistance boundaries, the analyst believes that the asset risks retesting support regions around $16. This zone has functioned as a safety net in the past sell-offs, and it could be tested again if purchasing pressure weakens. Continued weakness indicates sellers’ dominance and could cause the cryptocurrency’s value to further drop before buyers step into the market.

What Next for AVAX if Grayscale Rolls Out a Spot Avalanche ETF

The combination of technical rejection and sellers dominating makes AVAX more likely to retreat deeper if buyers cannot hold at $21, as pointed out in the data. For now, the $21 mark is the significant support level. If the asset falls below this level soon, it will bring attention to $16 per AVAX as the next area to watch.

Despite its consolidation, the token has been quietly developing some interesting formations, with price holding firm between $20.73 noted on August 3rd and today’s $23.56, indicating stability in on-chain activity. AVAX’s structure displays resilience, with consistent user interest keeping the downtrend contained. This not only reinforces enthusiasm but also sets AVAX in a favorable position for the next leg higher when momentum comes back.

The current price of AVAX is $23.58.

A key bullish catalyst for AVAX is a recent move by Grayscale Digital Asset Manager to change its flagship Avalanche Trust product into a spot Avalanche ETF. On Monday, August 25, Grayscale applied to the US SEC to convert its Grayscale Avalanche Trust into a publicly traded spot ETF listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The filing triggered excitement in the crypto community and lit a buzz across social media channels. Recently, Grayscale also applied for a Dogecoin ETF.

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